Super El Niño returns as scientists warn of a wet, wild winter

By: Samantha Galadzhyan and Gabriela Martinez, Staff writers

California declared a state of emergency in preparation for this year's El Niño as its effects start to rear its head along wave-beaten coastal beach towns from passing Hurricane Polo

For the first time since 2016, California is bracing for another “Super El Niño” as sea temperatures rapidly intensify at a record rate in the Pacific Ocean. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say it could shape weather across the United States through the coming winter and into spring. 

Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency on Sept. 21, to mobilize flood-fighting supplies and equipment ahead of the season.

Forecasters have not yet confirmed the intensity of El Niño, but say the risk is significant. Federal forecasters have put the odds at greater than 90 percent that it becomes a strong event this winter and 75 percent that it reaches historic strength. 

The formation of 2014-2016's El Niño. Abnormally warm equatorial waters and cold water in the north weakened trade winds and heat transfer going across to the western Pacific. Warm water accumulated near the Americas, which caused wetter conditions for the west coast. (NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin)

For the western United States, El Niño often means a wetter, stormier winter. Southern California, which has faced years of drought, could see much needed rain and mountain snow. However, heavy precipitation also raises the risk of flooding, mudslides and damage to roads and homes. Northern states, meanwhile, may face milder temperatures and less snowfall than usual.

For California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography scientists said El Niño can raise sea levels six to 13 inches and increase the risk of landslides, beach and cliff erosion and coastal flooding, especially when storms coincide with high tides.

In Long Beach, hurricane-driven waves have already damaged the peninsula’s boardwalk and stripped sand from parts of the coast, prompting the city to pursue its own emergency order.

Valley students are wary of potential risks with El Niño.

“I’ve seen so many clips of Long Beach,” Lasiana Portugal, a second year engineering major said. “That’s already really bad, and it got that way very fast. That’s the scary part.” 

The federal government has cut nearly 2,300 staffers from NOAA, crippling the federal agency responsible for weather outlook. Alongside that, he cut funding for the National Weather Service, leaving weather-prone states scrambling for up-to-date weather information during severe storms. 

The administration has also withheld FEMA funds from disaster-hit states as political stunts, as well as cutting $1.3 billion in funding from the agency. 

Geoffrey Somera, a first year studio arts major, lamented on the recent cuts, “The president took funding away from weather research. We should be doing more, but we’re doing less now.”

The last comparable event, in 2014-16, brought record rains and widespread flooding to parts of California. Forecasters say this year's pattern could follow a similar path.

The effects extend far beyond the United States. 

This year’s El Niño is projected to cause 450,000 deaths by February, according to a report authored by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago. Scientists say the pattern can disrupt fishing, farming, and energy use across many regions as El Niño brings drought conditions to parts of Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, threatening crops and water supplies. In South America, heavy rains can trigger flooding along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador.

While El Niño's exact strength remains uncertain, experts urge communities to plan ahead. Emergency officials recommend reviewing flood insurance, clearing storm drains, and preparing emergency kits before storms arrive.